Round 4 - Too Many Sheep

[Ricky]

This swap should be interesting. Both tribes stayed pretty much intact except for two people from each swapped places. Gleason and Robbie went to Unguja and Melody and Jermin went to Pemba. My money is unfortunately on Jermin not surviving this and heading to EoE very soon. I think Robbie and Gleason will be fine as long as they put the work in. Out of those two I think Gleason is in bigger trouble than Robbie. Apparently Leanna already wants to target him (one of his pre game connections!!). 

I'm hoping Pemba loses the challenge so William can meet up with Hannah and we get to see that dynamic play out. 

Austin is on the outs, but this guy does not give up easily, plus he's stocking up on Fire Tokens. He's going to put up a fight and if he goes to EoE my money is on him returning. 

My winner contender has not changed so far, that's Hannah. She's playing such a great game. There's no way she's not a late game player. 

Still high on Kelsey and Sam as well, no one is coming after them any time soon. 

[Ricky]

Robbie paid 2 Fire Tokens to send a message to Ben saying they should throw the challenges so him and Gleason can survive and Ben is actually thinking about it.

[Ricky]

The way the title of this round fits so perfectly... Robbie is controlling everything. He told Pemba to throw the challenge, and they are THROWING!!! He's staying safe while his allies put themselves at risk. I think we might be seeing a less ego centric Jake at work here. Hopefully I'm wrong, I dont want to see Robbie walk to Final Tribal Council.

[Ricky]

Lauren to Sam about her call with Gleason: "It was like talking with my grandma... I was looking for an excuse out"

[Ricky]

Ohp, Sam and Lauren on call yet again, they want to target Leanna over Robbie and Gleason. They DO NOT trust her.

[Ricky]

Leanna is proposing to Lauren that they take out an OG Unguja before going for Gleason or Robbie and Lauren is on call with Sam right now relaying all this information. Going to be pissed if Leanna comes for Sam :/. 

[benjimcfly]

We have SWAPPED. The tribes are unbalanced and leaves room for a lot of things to change. I'll break down each new tribe and place the players in best position to worst.

PEMBA 2.0

Ben

Ben is currently in the best position on Pemba 2.0. He is the leader of the remaining Pemba members and has already solidified his bond with Melody. I don't think anyone could garner the votes to get him out on this tribe, so I think he will be sitting pretty leading up to merge, unless something dramatic happens. The only thing I could see blowing up for him pre-merge is his relationship with Melody. If the other members found out how closely he's working with her and how much information he's providing, it might rub them the wrong way. I don't think this will happen unless Melody is put in a tight spot...

Kelsey

Kelsey is in the second best spot, mostly because people are *not* looking to target her. I don't want to say that she is a goat right now, but she could easily fall into that spot if she keeps following the lead of bigger players (like Ben and Robbie). Everyone likes her and seem to trust her with information. She has a high probability to make the merge. I truly hope she comes out of her shell, as she mentioned in her first confessional, and goes after either Ben or Robbie. This feels like one of the better moves for her, if she wants to win.

Melody

One could argue that Melody is in the best position in this tribe, since everyone likes her, she has the inside relationship with Ben and she has the safety without power advantage. She is the most influential player in the game, as she can get information from pretty much anyone she talks with. I haven't heard anyone say they don't trust her or won't give her information. She is Jermin's ally in the Minori3, and she is getting all of the inside info on Pemba from Ben. It would have to be a nasty round to fuck up her game right now, but the numbers are against her. Hannah/Kelsey/Austin will be ready to get rid of her at a moment's notice, if they need to.

Austin

I think Austin is in a better position than Hannah right now. Austin has this perceived "he has to work with us since we blindsided his only ally" and he's been working his ass off to provide any information he can get. He is very loyal to Ben and Kelsey (in the Beauties alliance chat) and is desperate to make the merge. Honestly, I am here for his placating, only to see him to chaos Austin in the later rounds. I know he can provide that drama, so I hope he continues to play nice until then.

Hannah

Hannah is falling victim to the vacation woes that many players get hit with in ORGs. She's currently in Kentucky with very little cell service and no WiFi. She will chime in group chats and agree with the plan then dip out. Not her strongest round, but her strongest ally is on the other side (Robbie). I don't necessarily think she is in danger, but she isn't providing anything this round so far.

Jermin

SOS. Send HELP! Jermin. Ben/Kelsey/Austin/Hannah/Melody are all very aware that they are throwing this challenge. You aren't. They've been doing everything they can to get information out of you before they vote you off. I hate to see it, but I don't know how you survive this round........ unless Melody gives you her power. Which I don't see happening. RIP

UNGUJA 2.0

Robbie

What can't this man do? Every round, I am more and more impressed with Robbie. This newbie is making some of the vets in this game look foolish. On paper, he should be in one of the worst two positions, being in the minority with his new tribemates. He has garnered trust with Lauren, Leanna and Charlene. He's given them just enough true information, while withholding all of his information. That alone is what is solidifying him with everyone in the group. No one wants him out nor has any intention to. If anything, they all want to work with him. I don't know anyone in this game who wants him out. Bravo.

Leanna

Leanna went from being mid-tier in her last tribe to shooting to the top. She has options for who to work with. She knows she can get Lauren, Charlene is getting closer with her every round, Gleason is warm to her and Robbie has given her lots of information of what happened on Pemba, pre-swap. She is in no danger this round and is doing very well, keeping close with all players, other than Sam. She seems to be frustrated with Sam, since he is the only person who isn't giving her much. She's mistaking it for bad gameplay, but, girl, Sam just isn't that into you. One downfall I could see: mistaking her good positioning as a needs to be a power player.

Charlene

Char-queeeeen! Everyone loves Charlene. Honestly, she could be first or second on this list, but perception of the players is everything. While I may think she's doing well, her other tribemates seem to view her as a MOTR player. She has outstanding relationships with Sam, Leanna, Robbie and even Gleason. She's not as close with Lauren, but I think that's on Lauren, as she didn't have good vibes from Charlene since the start. Charlene is strategic, sly, and ready to make a move. She's definitely controlling players from within and I am honestly not sure if/when she will ever be targeted. While Robbie is more obvious in how well liked he is, Charlene is covert. I can easily see Charlene snaking her way to FTC from this position.

Sam

Sam was a very slow player to start, but is finally picking up the pace with this new Unguja. He's finally beginning to have casual strategy conversations with Charlene and he's quickly warming up to Robbie and Gleason. Between him and Lauren, they're definitely on bottom of the OG Unguja here, but not in a bad position. I think if he continues to put in time and have substantial conversations with those he trusts the most, he will find himself in a good position. I don't see his game getting worse from here on out. That doesn't necessarily mean he's going to win, as he is working his way from being in a not-so-great position.

Lauren

I'm conflicted putting Lauren so low. She's not in a bad position. Lauren is fortunate to be on a such a strong tribe. I don't think Unguja will go to tribal council this round nor next round. She is on shaky ground, as her strongest early game ally, Malfoy, went home. She has had to work double time to gain trust. Everyone seems to like Lauren, but no one seems to have her as their number one. Lauren may escape an early exit, since her tribe is so strong aaaaand because Gleason is here.

Gleason

Gleason is currently in the least favorable position. Not the worst, per se, but he has the least social capital and his only pre-swap ally, Robbie, was never that close with him to begin with. Even though he has a pre-game connection with Leanna and is slowly gaining trust with Sam/Charlene, I don't think that would be enough to save him from a vote, if/when Unguja 2.0 has tribal. That being said, every round has different opportunities. If they survive this round, which is highly likely, he can still work to put himself in a better position.

EXILE ISLAND

Will

Will. You fucked up at the wrong time. Lying to Leanna about the Vendor Challenge was a bad move. She trusted you so much, then you chose to lie to her. You also might have got fucked that Hannah said she has recognized you from another game, regardless if you know her or not. Now you're missing out on meeting new people and will most likely be placed into Pemba 2.0, who is ready to eat alive any OG Unguja that comes their way. Not to mention, Leanna is ready to vote you out. I don't see how you recover from this, but there's always a chance you can find an advantage or stumble your way into a good position off of Exile.




Winner pick(s) as of today: Charlene or Robbie.

[Ricky]

I love Charlene. That's all.

But also, she's one of the best ones taking advantage of the Fire Tokens.

[Kyle]

NuPEMBA

Melody- Honestly, I am super impressed with Melody's ability to capitolize on this swap. I think that she has been such a strong social player and her ability to connect with Kelsey, Ben and some of the other new tribe members has really allowed her to get her foot in the door. Plus she has a tribe skip if she needs it down the line. I truely think that she is in a better spot on her tribe then some of the others that started in the majority. Melody just needs to keep her calm. I think it will be very interesting seeing what she does now that Jermin has an idol as I think this complicates things for her knowing she can't cleanly cut Jermin out of her game and may make her game a little messier then she wanted it to be. 

Ben- Ben I think has really created a big target on his back but I really appreciate him as a player. I dont think he asked for the target but all the pre-existing connections and the drama from last round has really put him in the spotlight. With Jermin having an idol I think Ben could be in a tough spot after so confidently throwing the challenge this round, which may teach him a tough lesson as to why you dont throw challenges. I think if he can maintain his relationship with Melody and Kelsey then he'll be fine but I also think if Melody wants to she could sink his game. 

Kelsey- Out of everyone I do think that she is in the best positon. I think that her relation ship with Ben may be the one thing holding back her game but I do think that she seems to have built a solid relationship with Hannah and Melody to the point where if Ben goes this round she would still be in a decent spot moving forward. I would be shocked to see her go. I wish her confessionals were a bit longer and juicier becasue I think she could provide a lot of great insight beyond her 1 min confessional. 

Jermin- Stoked he found the idol and am super interested in what he is going to do with it. I think his instincts tell him he is on the bottom and he has to do something with this. He is putting a lot of trust in Melody if he tells her. It will be interesting to see who he picks to idol out if it comes to that. I just hope he doesnt get led to the slaughter by Melody who might see it in her best interest long term for him to go as it creates the least mess knowing that people will probably learn that she knew about the idol if she is told. 

Austin- He is an interesting on to me because he was clearly on the bottom of his old tribe yet in a tribe swap situation like this he doesn't have a lot of choices on where to go or what to do. He understands at this point laying low might be the best plan for him till he can find more solid footing. But also he really should have considered flipping more then he did. Not sure it would have worked out because of the Melody/ben relationship and might have put the target on him, but without knowing that why go bakc to those people?  

Hannah- IDK fully whats happening but she seems to be MIA but also she recognises that she might need to link up with Kelsey. I will be really interested to see if the relationship she has built with Kelsey is enough for her to get on board. If she isnt talking Melody or Jermin i could see her being a casualty of the idol for sure. 

[Jay]

queen maddie posting confessionals from edge , really hope she gets to come back into the game

[Jay]

Theres no way the 4 OG pemba people dont atleast throw one vote on Melody right lmao??? If they actually all bet their tokens on Jermin going , thinking it will be a unanimous vote out ... that will be a top 5 XTC moment when he plays his idol. I am excited

[ashley]

Too Many Sheep? Too Many Horses!
I AM SO EXCITED FOR THIS TRIBAL!!

Lol Hannah filmed her confessionals outside by real a horse stable, relating her good token betting to horse betting and talking about what she's going to buy with her 18 fire tokens. I love her riskiness but I know this is going to hurt her BIG TIME! It seems Jermin asked Austin to vote for Hannah so maybe that's who he's targetting? I am so excited to see the last vote be read and hope that it is 5-1 vote tonight.

HOW IS NO ONE SMART ENOUGH TO NOT SAVE AT LEAST ONE TOKEN JUST IN CASE??

Melody is in the best position after tonight's tribal I think. I can't wait to see everyone's faces and wish I was prod so I could listen on their calls after tribal.

[ashley]

Also I love Charlene!! She is so new and I have been in her shoes searching for the idol not knowing how on earth to even do so. Shout out to Scott for being the only one to teach me. #XTCElHierro

I think it was a smart move to send it to Melody and I hope it gives Melody a little confidence boost in the way she's playing the game because she is doing great socially and doesn't seem to think she is!

[benjimcfly]

youtu.be/5sySuGBMzj0

Robbie end of round 4 confessional

[benjimcfly]

Ben exit interview:

youtu.be/YCcFgMb1svY