Round 5: This game has been blown wide open

[benjimcfly]

I don't even know where to begin with last round. This deserves some notes, for posterity. 

As my last write up said, Jermin was a dead man walking. That morning, he received the clue to the hidden immunity idol, but he didn't talk to his prod chat or mention ANYTHING. Literally, minutes after I posted that review, Jermin posted the final step to the idol in his confessional thread. An hour later, we confirmed that Jermin found the idol and the circus began. 

There's nothing more ironic than watching the person who convinced his tribe to throw the challenge to be voted out later on. The icing on the cake was all the bragging leading up to tribal, in addition to Austin, Kelsey, Ben and Hannah betting all of their fire tokens on Jermin leaving. That includes Hannah's 9 tokens, which would have been a ridiculous amount to harvest. 

Jermin decided to keep everyone in the dark (including production!!) about what his plans were for tribal. There was a small chance of Melody splitting her vote with him, but she ultimately decided to stay with Ben + company. Incredible. 

Ben decided to engage with Jermin at tribal, basically telling him "we have four you have two, you're going to be picked off and you're first". You couldn't write a better blindside edit than the one Ben + company provided for us. 

Jermin keeps his poker face on all tribal and plays the idol on himself, taking a 5-1 vote to a 1-0 vote. 

Will comes back from exile, who Jermin was working with pre-swap. Melody didn't even want to work with Ben + company, because she knew it would tank her game and she could potentially be the next vote. Now, Melody/Will/Jermin are riding high on this Ben blindside and hold all of the power on Pemba. Kelsey might be the most lost of everyone. She only had Ben she was closest with and was planning to ride his relationships to the merge. Hannah and Will have a connection, but Will is ready to use her for information and take her out. Austin never wanted to work with Ben but was left with no choice. He referred to him as The Shepherd, and had to be a sheep for him. Austin already told Melody/Jermin/Will that he will vote with them, and they believe him. Austin is finally in a position where he doesn't have to worry about rocking the boat, rather falling in line. I think Austin is in a much better position than anyone realizes. 

Anyway, that's the tea on the last tribal. I will be doing a quick write up of everyone else remaining below . 

[benjimcfly]

Current Standings:

PEMBA

Melody

Melody reclaims her spot as in the best position. Even though everyone can see her social game is strong, they all continue to indulge her with lots of calls and information. Everyone likes her and has a calculated amount of trust in her, too. Plus, she has the best connections on Unguja, if/when they merge. Like anything in this game, being on top is a dangerous position, especially with this crew. I think she's safe for a few rounds, due to her new majority and lack of hidden idols on Pemba.

Will

Will is in the next best position, only because of his connection to Hannah and he gets to start new with Kelsey. Honestly, Will's lies are what will be his fall. His lies are extravagant and he has trouble keeping them in line OR will tell someone the truth, hoping they don't compare notes. Well, they are comparing notes, Will. It's only time until they are done with being lied to. His connection to Hannah will totally help his new majority blindside her, if/when they go to tribal.

Jermin

Jermin is in a pretty good spot. Even though he was the target last round, I honestly do not think he will be targeted by Hannah or Kelsey, as there are bigger fish to fry in his minority (see above). His idol play was a big moment for an evening, but everyone has seemed to forgotten that he took out the biggest player. I'm sure his threat level will rise once the other players find out he took Ben out. For now? He will be fine.

Austin

Although Austin is 4th on this power list, I think he is in the perfect position for his game. Jermin/Melody/Will need his fourth vote to stop a tie/going to rocks. Austin has already told them he is ready and willing. That means he isn't playing any games and is transparent in his wanting to work with them. He needed a round where he has some power, and now he has it. Honestly, I am most excited for his character arc to the end of the season. Austin was lamenting to Maddie a couple rounds ago how much he's tired of being a pre-merge flame out. I don't see in what universe where someone is going to target him in the next two rounds, realistically. I hope that Chaos Austin arrives right when we need him. I see him making merge and I am thrilled for him.

Kelsey

OOf. The only reason she isn't last, is that she isn't a threat now that Ben is gone. Everyone wants Hannah out, because Kelsey is a non-threat. Girl, I have no clue where your game is going, and I am not sure if you do, either. I feel the ally you need is on the other tribe, but time is running out. Her name has been floated as a goat, and I could see that happening.

Hannah

Hannah seemed to think that having Will in the game was perfect for her, plus she was elated that Ben left (since she wanted to target him after the last round). Ben leaving was the worst thing for her game. It exposes Hannah as the next biggest threat. She had a lot of pride in the fact that she could play Will and use him for information. When he is the one doing that to her. Hannah, you better hope your tribe wins immunity up to the merge, because you are on life support.


UNGUJA

Charlene

This might be a surprise to some, but I think that Charlene is in the best position on Unguja. Allow me to explain.
-Everyone likes her, but no one considers her their #1.
-No one wants to target her.
-She's visible enough, but not an outward threat.
-She's been making moves that almost no one sees (the Minori3 alliance, for example)
-She's playing the game she told production she wanted to play. And is doing it well.

If this isn't a recipe for slipping to FTC and winning, I don't know what is. The next most powerful people (Robbie and Leanna) both like her and want to eventually work with her. There's no reason for them to target her, protecting her to merge. Also, she isn't seen as a godfather type of player like Ben was, so even if an idol is played, she won't be the target.

Robbie

Robbie and Leanna are in a virtual tie, imo. The only reason Robbie rises above is the fact he found the Unguja hidden immunity idol. Hannah is ruining Robbie's game from the outside. She told Will that Robbie is tight with everyone. I have NO CLUE why Hannah did this, as she told me pre-swap that Robbie is her #1. Robbie will be fine on Unguja, but if Hannah gets voted out and all anyone has is what she told them? Robbie will be targeted, round after round. In the mean time, he's in a very good position here.

Leanna

Leanna is playing her ass off on Unguja. It's not a perfect game, but she's managing all of her relationships well. People perceive Leanna as someone who is particularly social and that will make her a target later on. Leanna and Robbie did promise to be each others #1s after Ben left. I see Robbie being a meat shield for Leanna in future rounds. However, if she tries to blindside him and he uses the idol correctly, that could tank her game. And tbh, that feels like a total Leanna move later on down the road. Either way, she's sitting pretty currently.

Lauren

Lauren is in such an interesting spot. She's just close enough with nearly everyone, and she's very social, but no one notices it as much as, say, Melody. I have a feeling Lauren will be a pivotal player in future rounds, being a swing vote. The problem is, most people are not as forthcoming giving her information. I hope she establishes her own game, but she needs to start mitigating her information appropriately. It would take a bad move on her part to get herself targeted, pre-merge.

Gleason

I have no clue what Gleason's strategy is. He's tight with Robbie, which might be his only way to merge. Robbie needs his number and will feed him what the plan is, if/when a tribal happens. He needs some immunities to secure his long game. If Unguja loses twice, I think Robbie would save him round 1, then sacrifice him round 2. I know that Gleason has the capability to turn his game around, as he is a very savvy player. I'm just afraid it might be too little too late.

Sam

Sam's game is completely reliant on the player he decided to choose the most: Lauren. Lauren recently told Leanna she doesn't trust Sam. Soooooo... Sam has no one, really. People like him, but since he was hesitant to talk strategy/want to work with anyone, they don't want to work with him. If Unguja goes to tribal, I think people would tip toe around and eventually land on Sam being the vote.


Current Winner Pick: Charlene.

[Admin]

The way that Lauren is playing Sam
Not a great move or look for Lauren. Sam would be loyal to you, why you siding with Robbie and Leanna??? They aint got your best interest at heart...

[ashley]

"And I vote...for Ben, baby!"

[Jay]

lmao i wonder if will tells people hes recording their calls

[Jay]

also we are one round away from maddie hopefully returning to the game

[Jay]

my top 5 right now :

1. Robbie
2. Jermin
3. Kelsey
4. Melody
5. Will

[ashley]

Aug 4, 2020 0:17:15 GMT -5 Jay said:

also we are one round away from maddie hopefully returning to the game

I love how Maddie is already thinking about pooling tokens together with someone else to kick Ben off the edge.  I forgot that was even an option.

[ashley]

I gotta say, Austin is becoming a favorite for me. I feel like I have not seen the chaotic side and I like how he is playing from the bottom. He is upfront and I hope he stays over Hannah if Pemba goes to tribal. Will is changing his mind and wanting to keep Hannah now after talking all that crap about her. No bueno.