Round 9: Enjoy your ride to the finale!

[benjimcfly]

We just wrapped up the double tribal last night and re-merged the tribes. There wasn't much to report leading up to the vote, as everyone seemed to have their minds made up with such a small pool of people to choose from. Let's go through them real quick.

Tribe A: Melody/Ben/Robbie/Will/Hannah

The writing was on the wall for Hannah. She pissed Will off (the only person potentially willing to work with her). Robbie and Ben wrote her name down the round prior and Melody had her Safety without Power advantage to leave tribal and told everyone she was using it. Hannah left without much of a fight in a 3-1 vote. 

It should be noted at tribal: everyone talked about how they want Austin out. 

Not that anyone should have kept Hannah, but no one entertained any other option. As I posted earlier, Will formed an alliance with the rest of the tribe called The End Game. As soon as the tribes re-merged, it materialized that Will holds no allegiance to The End Game, even though it was his decision. I think Will believes he has that group fooled, but before the night was even over, Robbie and Ben were both very sus of Will and now want him out next. I think Will is suffering from only going through one vote, where he was with the 6 person majority. No one knows how to trust him, because he's been so removed from every vote. He's also being targeted by Melody and Charlene (on call as I type).

Tribe B: Charlene/Lauren/Jermin/Gleason/Austin.

Lauren put overplayed her hand this round and everyone knew it. She targeted Jermin at one point, and Charlene is loyal to him via Minori3. Charlene told Jermin and he was ready to vote Lauren. Gleason was excited to not be the main target, so he jumped on and Austin didn't have much of a choice at that point. Honestly, this round was best for Austin. He gained some loyalty points with Jermin, Charlene and Melody (not a lot, but enough). 

At this tribal, Ben was the person nailed as the biggest target in the game. Ben caught wind of this and basically said "that's not true at ALL". Then proceeded to give no reason why he isn't a big threat, but rather whined that he couldn't defend himself. Ben, you can't push a target off your back by saying "Nu-uh!". 

Will ran to Jermin and told him everything. And I mean EVERYTHING. Jermin knows about The End Game alliance, everything that was said at tribal. Jermin seems to entertain Will as an ally, but the only alliance they have together, officially, is sQUAD.... which is just Minori3 + Will. They formed this alliance on OG Unguja to guarantee the 4 person majority, and Will is expendable, but he doesn't know about Minori3. 

Ben/Robbie/Gleason seem to think they have lots of people in their back pocket, but that's completely false. Unfortunately, Lauren and Hannah were probably the only people left in the game who would help them vote someone out, but they were targeted for being flip-floppers. Quite the catch-22, if you ask me. 

I will be doing an individual player write up after this.

[benjimcfly]

I'm going to start this player review with two different rankings, then a quick summary of each player left.

Ben, Melody, Jermin, Charlene, Robbie, Gleason, Austin, Will

Ranking of who Benji thinks has the best chance of winning if they make it to FTC:

1. Ben
2. Robbie
3. Melody
4. Jermin
5. Austin
6. Will
7. Gleason
8. Charlene

This list is fluid.

The top 3 are a tight race. Ben is currently on top with the jury and has potential to move down. Robbie is solid top 2 no matter what, imo. Melody would need to talk her way to a win against Robbie and that's completely possible tbh.

The middle 3 are just as fluid. Will has a lot to prove to move up, and it's completely possible. Right now, it doesn't seem as though most people favor the game he's playing. Austin has a tough road ahead of him to convince people of his game and he is not as good at articulating his game as, oh, Melody. Jermin is well liked by the jury, but I don't see the rest of the jury agreeing as it fills up with more people.

The bottom 2 are currently seen by most as goats. I completely disagree, but I am not in the game. Gleason seems to be fitting that role of the "we need to get the goat out before we start to take out the top players". He's been a target for 4 rounds and he's still here. I think he might be going all the way to the end. Charlene might benefit from Jermin and Melody being in the jury, but it also depends who she is up against. She has a chance to rise in stock.

Ranking of people most likely to go the distance to FTC, according to Benji:

1. Gleason
2. Melody
3. Jermin
4. Charlene
5. Austin
6. Ben
7. Robbie
8. Will

As I mentioned earlier, I think Gleason has been a target for long enough, and bigger players will be sought to leave. Melody has 2 idols and is in the strongest alliance with Jermin and Charlene, hence their spots after her. Austin is going to be a vote for people until they don't need him or he fucks up. Ben is only 6th because he is a challenge beast. The second he loses, he's on life support. Robbie is in trouble due to his connection to Ben. Will is being targeted by everyone right now and is the likely vote this round.

[benjimcfly]

Run-down of everyone's game

Austin

Austin is currently the biggest thorn in the side of Robbie and Ben. That's okay, though, because he is tight with Minori3. They've already talked on phone how Minori3 is going to work with Austin through live night and probably one vote thereafter. Ben fucked any chance of working with Austin last night on call. Basically Ben said: why did you mess up my plan to jump on board with everyone to vote Hannah out at the merge vote? It was very unbecoming and Austin handled it like a pro. He didn't dig back at him, but told Ben: You're playing better than me. I needed to make a move. I don't see why Austin would work with Ben. He's in a good position and might be able to convince Jermin and/or Charlene to cut Melody later in the game, after all of her idols are gone.

Ben

Ben has played a great game. I feel like he's lost some steam. Making yourself a huge threat isn't the player people want to work with. Why take the best player to FTC? Even Robbie has expressed concern taking Ben to the end. He knows that Ben would beat him and wants to cut him before final 3. Honestly, the only way I see Ben winning is if he wins every immunity through the end of the game.

Charlene

Charlene has been plagued by the impression that she lives on the other side of the world and is difficult to talk to. This is downright wrong and kind of insulting to the game she has played (regardless of the fact that the VL loves her). She was a major reason Lauren went home. She also was the one who approached Jermin on Day 1, then Melody on Day 2 and formed Minori3, the strongest and longest lasting alliance in the game. If she plays this late game correctly, she might be found in a great spot to win. I somehow doubt the jury will see that, unless Jermin and Melody are there to tell everyone about the good game she's played (read: good, not great).

Gleason

I think Gleason has target fatigue. He's been everyone's first plan or back-up plan. His number one ally, Robbie, will protect him through the next couple of votes. He might find himself as the last boot before FTC or he might be sitting there. Gleason is a savvy talker and might be able to persuade people that he evaded enough votes to have played a good game, but I don't see who he could be sitting next to that would help him win.

Jermin

Jermin has an interesting story arc. He's the most up and down player in the game. Jermin has had big plays (the Ben vote, winning immunity, big alliances, people like him, etc) but will have bouts of being gone/at work. Some people observe his game as erratic, too. He has aligned himself with the right people and keeps surviving votes. The jury seems to be a fan of him, right now. I'm interested to see how far he gets!

Melody

Melody, in the opinion of all outside observers, is playing the best game, above and beyond. She's been aligned with every player in the game. The jury LOVES her. She's been finding idols and advantages left and right. Her ability to have a strong social game and turn that into an amazing strategical game is very impressive. In my opinion, she is the winner this season deserves, to the tune of who played the best and represented the flow of every vote. Melody is her own worst enemy, though. She slips up or has bad responses when put on the spot. I could see her getting clocked at final 4.

Robbie

Melody has a strong social game, but Robbie has the best social game. Where Melody lacks in social, Robbie lacks in strategy. He promises people the world and I think they are done taking his word at face value. Minori3 has discussed how big of a threat he is to win and wants him out ASAP. Having Ben in the game will help protect him, but I am not sure for how long. He could use an immunity win, too.

Will

I already mentioned this, but Will's game is lacking due to the fact he's been to three tribal councils. Two of which were no-brainers for everyone else. He dominates conversations in alliance chats, and everyone notices. He's very quick to over-promise, like naming his boot order to everyone he talks to. The fact that I don't think he's been solid with *anyone* in the game is transparent to the rest of the cast. They know he's trying to win everyone over, but they've already decided who they're working with. This is kind of funny and awkward to say, but it's like he is playing the EXACT SAME GAME as Hannah, just two rounds delayed. Either way, he is an entertaining player who is willing to make a big move at the drop of the hat. The only problem is, the next move is to take him out :\.